How are contracts priced?
Every contract on OG is priced between $0.01 and $1.00. This price reflects the market's collective estimate of how likely an outcome is to occur in real time.
The contract price corresponds directly to its implied percentage chance of winning. For example:
$0.85 Yes contract means the market estimates an 85% chance the outcome happens
$0.15 No contract means the market estimates a 15% chance the outcome fails
Because one outcome must happen, the Yes and No prices in any given market will always total approximately $1.00.
Important Note:
Platform fees may cause the total to sit slightly above or below $1.00, but each contract price still directly reflects the percentage chance of that outcome happening.
Why do contract prices change?
Prices update in real time based on transaction volume and real-world developments, functioning like a live confidence meter.
Price increases: High demand for Yes contracts drives the price up, indicating growing market confidence
Price decreases: High demand for No contracts (users selling out of their Yes positions) drives the price down, indicating falling market confidence
You can sell your contract before the event ends to lock in a profit or minimize a loss, provided there is a buyer (liquidity) on the other side. See the Closing a Position FAQ for details.
How does price impact my risk and profit?
Your upfront cost represents your maximum risk, while the contract price determines your potential profit.
For high-priced contracts (e.g., $0.85), there is low perceived risk but low potential profit.
Correct prediction: The contract settles at $1.00, with a low net profit of $0.15
Incorrect prediction: The contract settles at $0.00, with a high net loss of $0.85
For low-priced contracts (e.g., $0.15), there is high perceived risk but high potential profit.
Correct prediction: The contract settles at $1.00, with a high net profit of $0.85
Incorrect prediction: The contract settles at $0.00, with a low net loss of $0.15